Stark: What to watch for in September

This will be the 17th September since baseball broke into six divisions and added two wild cards back in the mid-'90s. None of the previous 16 looked anything like this. It's the first time in all those years that we could look around on Sept. 1 and not find even ONE tug-o'-war, for any of the eight playoff spots, between teams that were separated by no more than 1½ games. Yikes. How'd THIS happen, anyway? All right, it's true that the Red Sox and Yankees are divided by only a game and a half in the AL East. But does that count as a "meaningful race" if the loser is almost guaranteed to be the wild card? We'd vote no -- not in a traditional, win-or-else, pennant-race kind of way, anyhow. There's one thing we should remember, though. Sometimes these races aren't as "over" as they look. A year ago at this time, the Giants were four games out in the NL West. The Phillies were three back in the NL East. You know how their seasons turned out. In 2009, the Tigers blew a 3 �-game lead, entering September, in the AL Central. In 1995, the Mariners came from 7½ back to win the AL West. And we're not even going to get into what happened to the 2007 Mets. So it does happen. Just sayin'. October Matchup Scramble: AL Edition 2 On one hand, thanks to the flaws in the current wild-card system, that Yankees-Red Sox race is pretty close to irrelevant. If they're both moving on, why should we care? On the other hand, here's why we should care: Because it might not seem so irrelevant come October. The winner gets to open the postseason at home and have home-field advantage through the first two rounds. The loser gets home-field advantage in NO rounds and probably (barring a big finish by the Angels) has to kick off the postseason in Texas against a Rangers team nobody should want to mess with in October. Not that it would be any fun to run into Justin Verlander and the Tigers. But here's why inviting Verlander to The Stadium would be a fine alternative for the Yankees: 1. They're 5-2 against Detroit in games Verlander has started since 2008 (including 2-0 this year). And 2. the Yankees have lost four of the past six postseason series in which they DIDN'T have home-field advantage, with just one of those two triumphs coming in the past 10 seasons. October Matchup Scramble: NL Edition 3 Has anybody spotted a race in this league? It would be tough -- even with the Hubble Space Telescope. It's hard to believe that the CLOSEST race for any of the four NL playoff spots is six games. So unless somebody does some serious collapsing, the only drama in the NL standings this month will be the jockeying for seeding. But you don't think seeding matters to the Brewers? They have a shot to become only the fourth NL team in the expansion era to win 60 games at home -- but they have as many road wins as the Pirates. So the Brew Crew are lusting after that first or second seed. And you don't think seeding matters to the Diamondbacks? They've scored 52 more runs at home than on the road. Their OPS is almost 100 points higher at home (.782-.683). And their road batting average (.237) is lower than the Giants' road average (.238). So besides their quest to hold off the defending champs, the D-backs have humongous incentive to catch the Brewers for that No. 2 seed and home field in the division series. The Brewers still lead Arizona by three games on that front. But here's a tidbit to file away in case the Diamondbacks take advantage of their cushy September schedule and make this race closer: Arizona won the season series (4-3), so if the Diamondbacks and Brewers finish tied, Arizona would be the No. 2 seed. Prospective matchups if the postseason started today: Phillies (1) versus Diamondbacks (3), Brewers (2) versus Braves (4). Playoff preview series 4 Not that it will tell us anything about what lies ahead in October, but the September schedule features a bunch of potential playoff-preview series -- like these, for instance: • Rangers at Red Sox, Sept. 2-4 • Braves at Phillies, Sept. 5-7 • Phillies at Brewers, Sept. 8-11 • Yankees at Angels, Sept. 9-11 • Phillies at Braves, Sept. 26-28 And you'll be shocked to learn that the Red Sox WILL play the Yankees again -- three more times, Sept. 23-24-25, in New York. The MVP races 5 Is there even an MVP favorite in either league right now? We don't see one. And any time we can weave September plotlines into the MVP discussion, that often constitutes September theater at its finest. In the American League, you have more than just a mad scramble. You have a wild clash of disparate voting philosophies. No starting pitcher has won an MVP award in 25 years, but if you think that's a bogus way to vote, Justin Verlander has a great case. No player from a noncontender has won since Alex Rodriguez in 2003 (for the last-place Rangers), but if you think contending is somehow overrated, Jose Bautista's numbers make him the clear choice of the sabermetrics crowd. No Yankee other than A-Rod has won an MVP award in the past quarter century, but Curtis Granderson's potentially historic season could rewrite that nugget. And if one of the three legit Red Sox candidates -- Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury -- separates himself in September, the correct response to all the stuff we just talked about could be: Never mind. Over in the National League, the same arguments are swirling. It feels as though the Dodgers got eliminated on Mother's Day, but if that doesn't bother you, Matt Kemp's numbers are insane. And if we're going to welcome in all the noncontenders, toss the caps of Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen into this ring, too. Will we figure out which Brewer -- Prince Fielder or Ryan Braun -- to vote for? September could help us sort that out. And if Justin Upton leads the who-are-these-guys Diamondbacks into October, he could render all these other names defunct. But why do we have a feeling that the biggest MVP storyline in September might be more about how voting philosophies evolve among the baseball scribes with ballots than it will be about who does what on the field? Just a hunch. Let out a Cy 6 Before we hand Verlander his MVP trophy, we also should ask: Has he already ended the Cy Young debate? Uh, Jered Weaver still leads him in ERA (2.28-2.38), so that's one guy who sure doesn't think so, anyway. Then again, Verlander has now pulled within one-tenth of a run in ERA of taking the lead in all three categories that make up the pitching triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA). And keep in mind that since the invention of Cy Youngs, no pitcher has won a pitching triple crown and not won a Cy Young. That's a little factoid that's relevant to the NL Cy Young debate, too, by the way. In case you hadn't noticed, Clayton Kershaw leads the league in whiffs, is tied for the lead in wins and is now sitting at No. 2 in the ERA race. So Kershaw has elevated himself into the thick of the NL Cy Young free-for-all with a spectacular second half (9-1, 1.18 ERA since July 7). But Roy Halladay has obliterated the field in wins above replacement (7.2 to Kershaw's 5.8), has virtually an identical ERA to Kershaw's in a more hitter-friendly park and easily could argue he's the Cy Young of EVERY season. Then there's Cliff Lee, who is about to reel in his second pitcher-of-the-month award in the past three months and leads the league in shutouts (five) and double-figure strikeout games (eight). He also has piled up nearly twice as many starts of zero runs/eight-plus innings (eight) as any other pitcher in the league. Sure looks like we're in for a fabulous September pitch-off to settle that debate, doesn't it? The return of Strasburg and new September faces